LIVE · Islamabad talks open, but Hormuz traffic is still a trickle — only 14 vessels since Apr 8 · Apr 10, 2026
Global shipping crisis · Day 42

The strait that feeds
the world is still closed.

A ceasefire was announced April 8, and talks opened in Islamabad on April 10. Iran still says ships need permission and must pay steep transit fees. Since the ceasefire, only 14 vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz. Normal is 100+ ships a day.

Live tracking
Transit Comparison
Ships through the Strait since the ceasefire began on Apr 8 vs. what normal looks like over the same stretch
Actual transits · post-ceasefire (since Apr 8)
14
Apr 8–10, 2026
MarineTraffic said on Apr 10 that only 14 vessels, half of them laden, had crossed since the ceasefire was declared. Flows remain far below normal.
Normal baseline (same window)
300+
Pre-war daily average: 100–138 vessels/day
Pre-war data from Kpler and MarineTraffic. ~21 million barrels of oil and LNG moved through the strait daily under normal conditions.
Transit recovery rate post-ceasefire ~4.7% of normal
14 ships / 300+ expected since Apr 8
Ships waiting
~800
Vessels stranded around the strait as of April 8, per Bloomberg and Insurance Journal. Hundreds more diverted around the Cape of Good Hope.
Total transits since war began
21
Tankers transiting since Feb 28 (40 days), per S&P Global Market Intelligence. Normal would be 4,000+ over the same period.
Brent crude price
~$98
Per barrel as of Apr 9. Spiked to $107+ at conflict peak. Up ~35% since war began from ~$73/bbl. Fell on ceasefire news, then rebounded as shipping stayed constrained.
Iran transit toll demand
$1M+
Per ship, reportedly in cryptocurrency. Iran also released a map suggesting possible mining and designated shipping lanes. US demands "no tolls."
Current Status
Why the ceasefire hasn't opened the strait
Apr 10, 2026
🚢
Iran demanding permission for each ship
Despite ceasefire terms, Iran is requiring individual ship clearance before transit. "Let's be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled," said Sultan Al Jaber, ADNOC CEO, on April 9.
Critical
💰
$1M+ toll per transit, reportedly in crypto
Iran is charging over $1 million per ship to transit — a figure the US has explicitly rejected. Trump's White House says the strait must open "without limitation, including tolls." The toll demand is a direct ceasefire sticking point.
Critical
💣
Possible mined areas, designated lanes
Iran released a map indicating designated shipping lanes vessels must use for safe transit. Some analysts believe the map implies mined zones outside those corridors, though this has not been confirmed. Shipowners are unwilling to test the waters.
Unconfirmed
📋
Insurance: war risk cover near-unavailable
War risk premiums surged from 0.125% to ~1% of ship value per transit — from roughly $125K to $1M+ for a $100M tanker. Many major insurers have exited the Gulf entirely. Without coverage, shipowners face liability exposure they cannot absorb.
Critical
🕊️
Delegations are in Islamabad, but the truce is still disputed
Iranian and U.S. delegations are now in Pakistan for formal talks, but Tehran says key ceasefire terms have not been met and Lebanon remains a live point of dispute. Even with negotiations underway, shipping analysts still expect normalization to take weeks, not hours.
Pending
Ceasefire · Apr 8, 2026
What the US and Iran each claim they agreed to
Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire announced April 8. The two sides have sharply divergent interpretations of what was actually agreed — which is the core reason the strait remains functionally closed.
US position

Strait opens immediately, without limitation, including no tolls. Two-week suspension of planned strikes contingent on complete and immediate Hormuz opening. No conditions on individual ships. Formal talks are now underway in Islamabad.

Iran's position

Iran claims the US accepted its 10-point plan including lifting all sanctions and withdrawing US forces from regional bases. Iran says it controls strait access and will grant individual transit permissions. Toll framework under negotiation.

Traffic Collapse
Ships per day through Hormuz
From a baseline of ~100–138 vessels daily, traffic collapsed to near-zero when Operation Epic Fury began February 28. Forty-two days into the war, the corridor is still closed to the vast majority of commercial shipping.
Daily transit estimate (vessels)
Source: Kpler, S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarineTraffic (estimated/modeled)
Brent crude $/bbl — war impact
Source: Bloomberg, OilPrice.com (estimated/modeled from reported values)
Energy Markets
The price shock so far
Oil markets have been in crisis mode since Feb 28. Prices briefly fell on ceasefire news, then rebounded as the reality of continued blockade set in. Goldman Sachs warned another full month of closure keeps Brent above $100 throughout 2026.
Brent Crude
$98
+35% since Feb 28

Rebounded above $100 intraday April 9 before settling near $98. War peak was $107+. Pre-war was ~$73/bbl.

WTI Crude
$94
+32% since Feb 28

Tracking Brent with slight discount. US strategic reserves partially depleted to offset supply shock. SPR drawdowns ongoing.

LNG Spot (Asia)
$38
+85% since Feb 28 (est.)

Qatar's LNG exports — ~25% of global supply — transiting through Hormuz are severely disrupted. Asian buyers scrambling for spot cargoes.

War risk insurance
~1%
Was 0.125% pre-war

As a % of ship value per voyage. For a $100M VLCC: cost went from ~$125K to ~$1M per trip. Many insurers have exited entirely.

Cape of Good Hope diversion
+14d
Extra transit time

Ships rerouting around southern Africa add 10–14 days and significant fuel cost. Many tankers have chosen this over the risk of Hormuz.

Goldman 2026 forecast
$100+
If closed another month

Goldman Sachs warns that one more full month of Hormuz closure would keep Brent above $100/bbl for the remainder of 2026.

Who Depends on Hormuz
Energy exposure by country
The strait carries roughly 20–21 million barrels of oil per day in normal times — about 20% of global oil trade and 25% of seaborne oil. These are the nations most exposed to the blockade.
🇨🇳
China
~50%
of oil imports via Hormuz
China is the world's largest crude importer and the biggest single buyer of Gulf oil. Strategic reserves buying time, but growing pressure.
🇮🇳
India
~60%
of oil imports via Hormuz
India's economy runs heavily on Gulf crude. Refinery intake has already dropped. Fuel prices rising at the pump.
🇯🇵
Japan
~90%
of oil imports via Hormuz
Japan sources nearly all its oil from the Middle East and it transits Hormuz. Also depends on Qatari LNG now blocked. Among the most exposed nations.
🇰🇷
South Korea
~80%
of oil imports via Hormuz
Korea relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and Qatari LNG. Shipbuilders and refiners both squeezed simultaneously.
🇪🇺
European Union
~15%
of oil supply at risk
Less directly exposed than Asia but significant LNG reliance on Qatar. Global price surge is felt across all EU economies regardless of direct Hormuz exposure.
🇺🇸
United States
~5%
direct import exposure
US is net oil exporter and less directly exposed, but global price spike flows through. US SPR drawdowns ongoing. Military in the region driving crisis.
40-Day Timeline
How we got here
Operation Epic Fury began February 28, 2026 — a coordinated US-Israel strike on Iran. Within hours, the world's most critical energy chokepoint was effectively closed.
⚡
FEB 28, 2026
Operation Epic Fury — war begins
US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran targeting military installations, nuclear sites, and IRGC leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed. IRGC immediately issues warnings forbidding all commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
War Begins
📈
MAR 1–3, 2026
Oil spikes, insurance collapses
Brent crude surges past $90/bbl within 48 hours. War risk insurance premiums jump from 0.125% to 0.4% of ship value — adding hundreds of thousands of dollars per voyage. Major insurers begin withdrawing Gulf coverage entirely.
Energy Shock
🚢
MAR 3–18, 2026
Traffic collapses — diverted or stranded
Shipping firms begin routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days and significant fuel cost. Others anchor outside the strait awaiting clarity. Just 21 tankers transited the entire route in the first 18 days of the war, per S&P Global.
Near-Blockade
💣
LATE MAR 2026
Iran releases designated shipping lane map
Iran's navy publishes a map of "safe" shipping corridors through the strait. Analysts note the map implies zones outside those lanes may be hazardous — possibly mined. Brent peaks above $107/bbl. Goldman Sachs warns prolonged closure threatens global recession.
Escalation
⏳
APR 6, 2026
~800 ships stranded, 150+ idling near strait
Bloomberg reports ~800 vessels caught in the Hormuz queue, with over 150 anchored in nearby waters. Shipping companies begin exploring Iran-permission applications. War risk premiums hit ~1% of vessel value per transit.
Crisis Peak
🕊️
APR 8, 2026
Pakistan-mediated ceasefire announced
US and Iran agree to a fragile two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. Trump announces Iran will "immediately open" the strait. Iran claims it forced US acceptance of its 10-point plan, including sanctions relief. The two sides have conflicting accounts of what was actually agreed.
Ceasefire
⚠️
APR 8–10, 2026 · NOW
Post-ceasefire: 14 vessels since Apr 8 — strait still far from open
MarineTraffic said on Apr 10 that only 14 vessels had crossed since the ceasefire began, leaving flows at a tiny fraction of normal. Iran continues requiring individual permission and demanding $1M+ tolls per ship, while talks in Islamabad begin under a visibly shaky truce.
Ongoing
🔜
APR 10, 2026
US-Iran formal negotiations begin in Pakistan
Formal talks are now opening to test whether the ceasefire can be converted into actual shipping access. Even under a best-case outcome, experts say tanker traffic normalization will still take weeks because insurance, crews, and routing systems all need time to recover.
Upcoming

Sources — Updated Apr 10, 2026