LIVE · Blockade fully implemented — Iran threatens Red Sea shipping · ceasefire expires Apr 22 · extension under discussion · Apr 15, 2026
Global shipping crisis · Day 47

The strait that feeds
the world is still closed.

The US Navy blockade is fully implemented — CENTCOM says it has completely halted Iranian sea trade, costing Iran $435M/day. Iran is threatening to shut down Red Sea shipping in retaliation. The ceasefire expires April 22. A two-week extension is under discussion. Brent is back at $100.

Blockade active · ceasefire expires Apr 22
Transit Comparison
Blockade is "fully implemented" per CENTCOM. 9 ships turned around in the first 48 hours. 3 sanctioned tankers transited Apr 14 to non-Iranian ports — technically allowed under US rules. Normal is 100–138 vessels/day.
Actual transits · post-ceasefire
12+
Post-ceasefire · through Apr 15
~12 vessels crossed Apr 8–11 under Iran's permission regime. Since the US blockade began Apr 13: 9 turned around in 48 hrs. 3 sanctioned tankers transited Apr 14 — all to non-Iranian ports (UAE), technically permitted. CENTCOM claims zero Iranian-port traffic getting through.
Normal baseline (same window)
400+
Pre-war daily average: 100–138 vessels/day
Pre-war data from Kpler and MarineTraffic. ~21 million barrels of oil and LNG moved through the strait daily under normal conditions.
Transit recovery rate post-ceasefire ~3% of normal
12+ ships / 400+ expected over the first days of truce
Ships waiting
~800
Vessels stranded around the strait as of April 8, per Bloomberg and Insurance Journal. Hundreds more diverted around the Cape of Good Hope.
Total transits since war began
21
Tankers transiting since Feb 28 (43 days), per S&P Global Market Intelligence. Normal would be 4,000+ over the same period.
Brent crude price
~$98
Per barrel as of Apr 14 (Fortune/EIA). Up ~43% from pre-war ~$70. Peak $126. Jet fuel up 95% to ~$195/bbl. Goldman: above $100 all year if closure holds. Dallas Fed scenario: $140–160 under sustained blockade.
Cost to Iran · blockade
$435M
Per day in economic damage, per CENTCOM estimates. ~90% of Iran's economy moves by sea. Iran is now threatening to extend disruption to Red Sea shipping in retaliation.
Current Status
The strait is now closed from both sides
Apr 15, 2026
🚢
Iran demanding permission for each ship
Despite ceasefire terms, Iran is requiring individual ship clearance before transit. "Let's be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled," said Sultan Al Jaber, ADNOC CEO, on April 9.
Critical
💰
$1M+ toll per transit, reportedly in crypto
Iran is charging over $1 million per ship to transit — a figure the US has explicitly rejected. Trump's White House says the strait must open "without limitation, including tolls." The toll demand is a direct ceasefire sticking point.
Critical
💣
Mine risk is now shaping military and commercial decisions
U.S. officials said on Apr 11 that military assets were searching for mines in and around the strait. Even without confirmed detonations, the threat has kept commercial traffic thin and reinforced shipowners' reluctance to re-enter normally.
Unconfirmed
📋
Insurance: war risk cover near-unavailable
War risk premiums surged from 0.125% to ~1% of ship value per transit — from roughly $125K to $1M+ for a $100M tanker. Many major insurers have exited the Gulf entirely. Without coverage, shipowners face liability exposure they cannot absorb.
Critical
🕊️
Ceasefire expires April 22 — extension under discussion
Pakistan talks collapsed April 12. Trump ordered blockade. Both sides are now signaling willingness for a second round of talks — possibly as early as this week. A 2-week ceasefire extension is under active discussion per Bloomberg and AP. Nuclear enrichment gap: US wants 20-year halt; Iran proposed 5 years. Trump says war is "very close to over."
Expires Apr 22
Ceasefire Status · Apr 15, 2026 · Expires Apr 22
Blockade active, extension talks underway — 7 days left
The original 2-week ceasefire expires April 22. Both sides are signaling willingness for a second round of talks, possibly this week, with a 2-week extension under active discussion per Bloomberg and AP. Meanwhile the blockade continues and Iran is threatening to close Red Sea shipping in retaliation. Trump says the war is "very close to over."
Nuclear gap — the key sticking point

US demands a 20-year halt to enrichment and dismantling of all major facilities. Iran has proposed 5 years — and says enrichment rights are "indisputable" though the level is "negotiable." This gap is the core obstacle to any extension becoming a real peace framework.

Iran's escalation threat

IRGC Gen. Abdollahi warned the blockade is "a prelude" to ceasefire violation. Iran has explicitly threatened to shut down Red Sea shipping — potentially triggering a second front — if the blockade continues. Iran is still talking to the US while escalating its public posture.

Traffic Collapse
Ships per day through Hormuz
From a baseline of ~100–138 vessels daily, traffic collapsed to near-zero when Operation Epic Fury began February 28. Forty-three days into the war, the corridor is still closed to the vast majority of commercial shipping.
Daily transit estimate (vessels)
Source: Kpler, S&P Global Market Intelligence, MarineTraffic (estimated/modeled)
Brent crude $/bbl — war impact
Source: Bloomberg, OilPrice.com (estimated/modeled from reported values)
Energy Markets
The price shock so far
Oil markets have been in crisis mode since Feb 28. Prices spiked to $126/bbl at peak, briefly fell on ceasefire news, then climbed again as the closure persisted. The collapse of Pakistan talks and the US naval blockade announcement are expected to drive another sharp leg higher. Goldman warns above $100 for all of 2026 if the closure holds another month.
Brent Crude
$98
+35% since Feb 28

Rebounded above $100 intraday April 9 before settling near $98. War peak was $107+. Pre-war was ~$73/bbl.

WTI Crude
$94
+32% since Feb 28

Tracking Brent with slight discount. US strategic reserves partially depleted to offset supply shock. SPR drawdowns ongoing.

LNG Spot (Asia)
$38
+85% since Feb 28 (est.)

Qatar's LNG exports — ~25% of global supply — transiting through Hormuz are severely disrupted. Asian buyers scrambling for spot cargoes.

War risk insurance
~1%
Was 0.125% pre-war

As a % of ship value per voyage. For a $100M VLCC: cost went from ~$125K to ~$1M per trip. Many insurers have exited entirely.

Cape of Good Hope diversion
+14d
Extra transit time

Ships rerouting around southern Africa add 10–14 days and significant fuel cost. Many tankers have chosen this over the risk of Hormuz.

Goldman 2026 forecast
$100+
If closed another month

Goldman Sachs warns that one more full month of Hormuz closure would keep Brent above $100/bbl for the remainder of 2026.

Who Depends on Hormuz
Energy exposure by country
The strait carries roughly 20–21 million barrels of oil per day in normal times — about 20% of global oil trade and 25% of seaborne oil. These are the nations most exposed to the blockade.
🇨🇳
China
~50%
of oil imports via Hormuz
China is the world's largest crude importer and the biggest single buyer of Gulf oil. Strategic reserves buying time, but growing pressure.
🇮🇳
India
~60%
of oil imports via Hormuz
India's economy runs heavily on Gulf crude. Refinery intake has already dropped. Fuel prices rising at the pump.
🇯🇵
Japan
~90%
of oil imports via Hormuz
Japan sources nearly all its oil from the Middle East and it transits Hormuz. Also depends on Qatari LNG now blocked. Among the most exposed nations.
🇰🇷
South Korea
~80%
of oil imports via Hormuz
Korea relies heavily on Middle Eastern crude and Qatari LNG. Shipbuilders and refiners both squeezed simultaneously.
🇪🇺
European Union
~15%
of oil supply at risk
Less directly exposed than Asia but significant LNG reliance on Qatar. Global price surge is felt across all EU economies regardless of direct Hormuz exposure.
🇺🇸
United States
~5%
direct import exposure
US is net oil exporter and less directly exposed, but global price spike flows through. US SPR drawdowns ongoing. Military in the region driving crisis.
43-Day Timeline
How we got here
Operation Epic Fury began February 28, 2026 — a coordinated US-Israel strike on Iran. Within hours, the world's most critical energy chokepoint was effectively closed.
⚡
FEB 28, 2026
Operation Epic Fury — war begins
US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran targeting military installations, nuclear sites, and IRGC leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is killed. IRGC immediately issues warnings forbidding all commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
War Begins
📈
MAR 1–3, 2026
Oil spikes, insurance collapses
Brent crude surges past $90/bbl within 48 hours. War risk insurance premiums jump from 0.125% to 0.4% of ship value — adding hundreds of thousands of dollars per voyage. Major insurers begin withdrawing Gulf coverage entirely.
Energy Shock
🚢
MAR 3–18, 2026
Traffic collapses — diverted or stranded
Shipping firms begin routing vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days and significant fuel cost. Others anchor outside the strait awaiting clarity. Just 21 tankers transited the entire route in the first 18 days of the war, per S&P Global.
Near-Blockade
💣
LATE MAR 2026
Iran releases designated shipping lane map
Iran's navy publishes a map of "safe" shipping corridors through the strait. Analysts note the map implies zones outside those lanes may be hazardous — possibly mined. Brent peaks above $107/bbl. Goldman Sachs warns prolonged closure threatens global recession.
Escalation
⏳
APR 6, 2026
~800 ships stranded, 150+ idling near strait
Bloomberg reports ~800 vessels caught in the Hormuz queue, with over 150 anchored in nearby waters. Shipping companies begin exploring Iran-permission applications. War risk premiums hit ~1% of vessel value per transit.
Crisis Peak
🕊️
APR 8, 2026
Pakistan-mediated ceasefire announced
US and Iran agree to a fragile two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. Trump announces Iran will "immediately open" the strait. Iran claims it forced US acceptance of its 10-point plan, including sanctions relief. The two sides have conflicting accounts of what was actually agreed.
Ceasefire
⚠️
APR 8–11, 2026
Post-ceasefire: ~12 vessels cross — strait still functionally closed
AP / Kpler reported at least 12 vessels crossing in the days following the April 8 ceasefire — a tiny fraction of normal. Iran continued requiring individual ship permission and demanding $1M+ crypto tolls. Two US warships sailed through to assert navigational rights. US mine-clearance operations began.
Pre-collapse
💥
APR 11–12, 2026
Pakistan talks collapse after 21 hours — no deal
JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner arrived in Islamabad for direct talks with Iran's FM Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. After 21 hours, talks ended without agreement. Iran refused US demands to end uranium enrichment and dismantle enrichment facilities. Vance said the US offer was "final and best." Iran's FM said talks ended with "gaps on several major issues."
Talks Collapse
🚢
APR 12, 2026
Trump announces US Navy blockade of Hormuz — effective immediately
Following the collapse of talks, Trump announced the US Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz — blocking all traffic to and from Iranian ports. The US will intercept any vessel that paid tolls to Iran. Mine destruction operations ordered. UK declined to join. Two carrier strike groups, 12+ destroyers, and Gulf state navies involved.
Blockade Ordered
⚓
APR 13–14, 2026
Blockade "fully implemented" — 9 ships turned, 3 sanctioned tankers transit to UAE
CENTCOM says the blockade has "completely halted" Iranian sea trade in its first 48 hours. 9 vessels complied with US Navy direction to turn back. However, 3 US-sanctioned tankers (Rich Starry, Peace Gulf, Elpis) transited to non-Iranian ports (UAE) — technically allowed under US rules targeting Iranian-port-bound traffic. Iran's cost: ~$435M/day per CENTCOM. China calls blockade "dangerous and irresponsible."
Blockade Active
⚠️
APR 15, 2026 · NOW
Iran threatens Red Sea — ceasefire extension under discussion
IRGC Gen. Abdollahi warns Iran may close Red Sea shipping if blockade continues, threatening a second front. Simultaneously, both the US and Iran are seeking a second round of talks "as early as this week." A 2-week ceasefire extension is under active discussion per Bloomberg and AP mediators. Ceasefire expires April 22. Trump says the war is "very close to over." Brent at $100.
Ongoing — Apr 22 deadline

Sources — Updated Apr 15, 2026